フィリピンとグアム付近に熱帯低気圧｜2023年8月23日

南鳥島近海の熱帯低気圧が台風10号となる見通し 気象庁

南鳥島近海の熱帯低気圧「TD 08W」は8月25日、台風10号となる見通し

熱帯低気圧 b 8月24日22時30分気象庁発表

フィリピンとグアム付近に熱帯低気圧

「91W」は8月24日、令和5年台風9号になりました。

—

JTWCは、2023年8月23日0600Z（UTC）、日本時間同日15時00分、フィリピンの東に熱帯低気圧「TD 08W」を、グアムの北東で低圧部「91W」を解析、情報発行しています。

また、気象庁では、2023年08月23日21時の実況天気図で、この2つを「TD（熱帯低気圧）」として表記しています。

今後、発達する条件が整い勢力を強めた場合には、台風となる可能性があります。

※熱帯低気圧・低圧部は、発達せずに消滅する場合があります。

JTWC Tropical Warnings

JTWC Tropical Warnings ISUUED at 20230823/0600z

フィリピンの東海上にある「91W」は、今後24時間以内に熱帯低気圧となる可能性。

グアムの北東にある「TD 08W」は、すでに熱帯低気圧となっていて5日先までの勢力・進路等の情報が発行されています。

TD08W Tropical Depression 08W (Eight) Warning #03 Issued at 23/1500Z JTWC

TC Warning Graphic

TC Warning Graphic JTWC

TC Warning Text

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z — NEAR 16.9N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 149.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z — 16.8N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z — 17.1N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z — 17.5N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z — 18.6N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z — 21.8N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z — 25.4N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
—
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z — 28.9N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS – 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
—
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 149.8E.
23AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 998
MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

91W Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Issued at 23/0230Z JTWC

TC Warning Graphic

TC Warning Graphic JTWC

TCFA Text

WTPN21 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.1N 126.4E TO 21.9N 125.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.0N 126.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 442 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 222146Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STEADY
NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240230Z.//
NNNN

気象庁天気図

8月23日21時の実況天気図

8月23日21時の実況天気図 気象庁

参考：International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

2023年8月23日23時00分時点

td08w 91w Tracking MAP

reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley