JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98Wを解析 台風3号発生の可能性
98W レベル「HIGH」
JTWCは、2023年6月5日06時30分UTC、日本時間同日15時30分JST、フィリピン海（10.9N 137.4E）の低圧部98Wが今後24時間以内に熱帯低気圧となる「TC development likely within 24 hours」の情報を発行しました。なお、この情報は、2023年6月6日06時00分UTCまでに、再発行、警報への格上げ、または解除される予定です。
また、気象庁は6月5日時点で、7日09時の予想天気図にTD（熱帯低気圧）発生を解析しています。
W98が熱帯低気圧となり、その後、発達した場合、令和5年台風3号となる可能性があります。
※低圧部・低気圧・熱帯低気圧は、気象条件等によって発達せず、「消滅」する場合があります。
JTWC ISUUE TIME：05/0630z
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 05/0600Z｜IR Satellite Imagery
JTWC ISSUE TIME：02/0600z
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Issued at 05/0600Z TCFA Text
WTPN21 PGTW 050600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 134.7E TO 13.7N 132.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 134.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 050017Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060600Z.//
TCFA Graphic
気象庁観測 気圧配置
▶ 気象庁天気図
2023年06月05日09時の実況天気図
2023年06月06日09時の予想
2023年06月07日09時の予想
参考：International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
進路予測 2023年6月5日16時30分時点
reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley
