JTWC パラオの西海上で低圧部98W解析台風発生の可能性

JTWC パラオの西海上で低圧部98W解析台風発生の可能性｜2023年7月17日06時00分UTC発行

2023年7月17日

JTWC パラオの西海上で低圧部98W解析

JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2023年7月17日06時00分UTC、日本時間同日15時、フィリピン海・パラオの西海上（7.8N 136.6E）付近で、低圧部「98W」を解析、情報発行しています。

98Wの同時点での解析状況は「MEDIUM」。

また、気象庁は、2023年07月19日09時の予想天気図で、「TD（TROPICAL DEPRESSION）熱帯低気圧」1004hPaを解析予想しています。

この低圧部が熱帯低気圧となり発達すると、台風発生の可能性があります。台風が発生した場合、令和5年台風第5号となります。

※低圧部・低気圧・熱帯低気圧は、気象条件等によって発達せず、「消滅」する場合があります。

JTWC Issued at 17/0600Z

JTWC

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17JUL23 0000Z, TYPHOON 04W (TALIM) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N
113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 170300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP BROAD CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 170001Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A DEFINED
BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FEW 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A LARGER SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET
FURTHER SOUTH OF LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98W WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE
PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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