台風・熱帯低気圧・低気圧

JTWC 熱帯低気圧TD15W(TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W)を解析|2022年9月10日21時30分(UTC)時点

 

JTWC 熱帯低気圧(TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W)を解析

JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center:米軍合同台風警報センター)は9月10日21時30分(UTC)、日本時間9月11日06時30分(JST)時点で、日本の南東、太平洋上(21.2N 159.5E)付近で「TROPICAL DEPRESSION(熱帯低気圧)15W」を解析・発表しています。

 

TC Warning Text

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 159.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 159.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 21.6N 160.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 22.1N 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 22.9N 162.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 24.4N 162.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 29.0N 163.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 36.5N 166.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 43.4N 175.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 159.7E.
11SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
354 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

 

TC Warning Graphic

 

 

Tracking Map(参考)

reference:cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley

 

 

92W(TC development likely MEDIUM)同時点

JTWCが注目している低圧部。

今後、今後24時間以内にSignificant Tropical Cycloneにまで発達する可能性が「MEDIUM」。

「MEDIUM」→ TC development likely. but excepted to occur beyond 24 hours.
監視対象の低圧部で、今後24時間以内に発達する可能性が高まっているが、発達するにはおそらく24時間以上かかりそうなもの

 

 

JTWC

JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)合同台風警報センターとは

JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)合同台風警報センターとは - UPJ Unavailable Press Japan
JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)合同台風警報センターとは - UPJ Unavailable Press Japan

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