JTWC 南シナ海から北マリアナ諸島にかけて4つの低圧部を解析｜2022年10月12日04時00分発行

JTWC 南シナ海から北マリアナ諸島にかけて4つの低圧部を解析｜Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories

2022年10月12日04時00分（UTC）

JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2022年10月12日04時00分（UTC）、日本時間（JST）同日13時00分、北太平洋で、低圧部99Wを解析、情報発行しました。

レベル：MEDIUM

位置：16.0N 151.3E（グアム島の東北東約760km付近）

この解析発行により、同時点で、南シナ海から北マリアナ諸島にかけて、4つの低圧部が存在しています。

90W：LOW → 台風19号に発達

97W：MEDIUM → 10月14日06時00分（UTC）時点で「HIGH」に上昇

99W：MEDIUM → 熱帯低気圧21Wに発達

98W：HIGH → 消滅

98W , 97Wの経過は下部「これまでの経過」参照。

台風の発生と熱帯低気圧｜台風関連の用語・基礎知識

Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories｜Reissued at 12/0400Z

ABPW10 PGTW 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120400Z-120600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0N 124.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM 
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
DRIFTING SLOW TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED 
BOTH BY THE TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW 
ACTING AS A BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT 
TAU 24, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF 
VORTICITY. THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY 
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO 
DEVELOP BUT THEN DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 
36 TO THE EAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 110530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM 
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111220Z ASCAT 
METOP-C PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLC IS BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH THE 
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY RANGING FROM 15-20 KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE 
ON A SLOW NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
       (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.5N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR N E, APPROXIMATELY  NM NORTH OF 
. AN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED 
CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. AN 111309Z ASCAT 
METOP-B BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS 90W BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A 
STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT TO KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 
151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST OF SAIPAN, NORTHERN MARIANA 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120230Z 
HIMAWARI-8 INFARED IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. 
FURTHERMORE, A 112358Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFIND LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), 
FAIR EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(4).//
NNNN

2022年10月11日20時00分（UTC）90W

JTWCは、2022年10月11日20時00分（UTC）、日本時間（JST）同12日05時00分、南シナ海で、低圧部90Wを解析、情報発行しました。

レベル：LOW

位置：13.5N 118.6E（フィリピン・マニラの西南西約280km付近）

参考：進路予想｜International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

10月13日01時00分（JST）時点

reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley

これまでの経過

JTWC フィリピン海の低圧部98WをHIGHに解析 24時間以内に熱帯低気圧発生の可能性｜2022年10月11日05時30分UTC発行

JTWC グアム島 アガットの西約135km付近で低圧部97Wを解析｜2022年10月10日UTC

JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98Wを解析｜2022年10月9日06時00分UTC