JTWC グアム島アガットの西約135kmで低圧部97Wを解析｜Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories
2022年10月11日06時00分（UTC）
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、低圧部W97について、2022年9月11日06時00分、日本時間（JST）同15時00分、「LOW」から「MEDIUM」に上昇させた解析を発行しました。
位置：14.1N 142.4E（グアム島の西北西約260km付近）
Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories｜Issued at 11/0600Z
ABPW10 PGTW 110600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZOCT2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110521ZOCT2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: -- 98W Abbreviated --
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.3N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AMPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED BUT STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF. AN 110020Z
ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWS HALF THE STORY OF 97W WITH WIND
FIELDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE RANGING FROM 20-30KTS (UNDER A CONVECTIVE
BAND) WITH LESSER FIELDS OF 10-15 KTS ON THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (05-10 KTS) VWS, WARM 30C SSTS, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED
BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER 97W AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH WHICH IS
INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
2022年10月10日06時00分（UTC）
位置：13.3N 143.4E（グアム島 アガットの西約135km）付近
今後24時間以内に重要な熱帯低気圧が発生する可能性は低い
ABPW10 PGTW 100600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A DISORGANIZED, POORLY-DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 100041Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 20-25 KNOT SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1005.4MB AND A NOTEWORTHY 24- HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
※熱帯じょう乱のうち、低気圧性循環（LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION）の中心が不明瞭なものは原則として「低圧部」と解析される。
※CONVECTION：対流・対流圏（troposphere）
参考：International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
位置
reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley